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How can I forecast sales, profits and market shares for a totally new product, given no historical data, etc?
I need to forecast these figures but I have no initial data for any mathematical process, do I end up having to make a guess-estimate instead?
No silver bullet here!
First, do you clearly know the size of the current market? (your prospective customer is solving the problem for which your product provides a solution in some way now - they may throw a lot of people at the problem; they may have developed internal processes; or they may buy an existing solution.
Second, understand the switching costs - to move from a current product to a new technology. Will you gain share from current market? Will you expand the market by adding new customers?
What does Gartner Group, or the like, say about the market, what they need, how they are currently consuming products to meet needs? What are their predictions for market growth? Assume a very conservative share of that growth using new to the world technology.
What has your beta testing revealed about customer acceptance? Switching cost? Understanding value? Another reason for beta testing a new technology is that you gain an understanding of clutter (both real and imagined) that must be overcome and the amount of effort it will take to penetrate the market with a new value proposition.
Geoffrey Moore's technology adoption curve could help you understand the process of new adoption.
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